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Table 2 Summary of measuring performance of prognostic prediction models

From: Prognosis prediction models for post-stroke depression: a protocol for systematic review, meta-analysis, and critical appraisal

Items

Performance measures/statistics

Values for better performance

Visualization

Discrimination

AUC-ROC

Higher

ROC curve

 

ACC

Higher

 
 

BER

Lower

 
 

D statistics

Lower

 
 

MCC

Higher

 
 

F1 score

Higher

 
 

Log-rank

Lower, p > .05

 
 

AUC-PRC

Higher

PRC curve

Calibration

Calibration curve, slope, and intercept

Slope closer to 1 and intercept closer to 0

Calibration plot

 

Reliability-deviation

Lower

 
 

Reliability–within-bin variation

Lower

 
 

Reliability–within-bin covariance

Higher

 
 

Resolution

Higher

 
 

Predictive range

Higher

 
 

Emax

Lower

 
 

Eavg

Lower

 
 

Hosmer–Lemeshow test

Higher

 
 

Total O:E ratios

Higher

 

Classification

RMSE via neighborhood estimate

Lower

Reclassification scatter plot

 

R2 statistic

Higher

 
 

TPR

Higher

 
 

TNR

Higher

 
 

NRI

Higher

 
 

IDI

Higher

 

Overall performance

Brier score

Lower

 
 

Brier skill score

Higher

 
 

Prediction squared error

Lower

 
 

Decision Curve Analysis

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DCA plot

  1. AUC-ROC Area under receiver operating characteristic curve, TPR Sensitivity, ACC Accuracy, BER Balanced error rate, MCC Matthews correlation coefficient, TNR Specificity, AUC-PRC Area under precision-recall curve, RMSE Root-mean-squared error, NRI Net reclassification improvement, IDI Integrated discrimination improvement